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SMART MONEY
Brunello Rosa's New Book
“Smart Money: How digital currencies will win the New Cold War - and why the West needs to act now”, the book Brunello Rosa has written with Casey Larsen for Bloomsbury Publishing, will be available in all major bookshops from October 24th, 2024.
This book discusses the fundamental theme of the “geopolitics of central bank digital currencies” in a non-technical manner, and is aimed at the general public. It does not shy away from discussing their most controversial implications, including the risks to privacy, the stability of the banking system as we know it, or the re-organisation of the global financial architecture around these new instruments.
Go to the book's webpage on brunellorosa.com
PODCAST
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss Trump's first appointments and likely policies
22 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the likely causes and consequences of Trump’s recent triumph.
15 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the end of the US presidential race and the chaos that may emerge afterword.
5 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the key takeaways from the latest IMF Meetings.
1 November 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the US political polarisation is hitting the digital asset space.
25 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why China still needs to provide more fiscal and monetary stimulus to avert deflation
21 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the “bipolar” behaviour exhibited by markets in the last few weeks.
11 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the two conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue, with no end in sight.
4 October 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why the election in Brandenburg confirmed the AfD’s rise in East Germany
27 September 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss how the Harris-Trump TV debate has re-opened the race for the White House.
20 September 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss why the Cold War between US and China is intensifying.
13 September 2024
In their latest podcast Brunello Rosa and Manas Chawla discuss the difference between defending the “freedom of speech” and spreading misinformation.
6 September 2024
News
Best Independent MacroEconomic Research & Advisory Firm-2023
In June 2023, Rosa & Roubini Associates has been recognised for the second consecutive year as the best independent macroeconomic research & advisory firm by Corporate Vision Magazine
Weekly Column
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R&R Weekly Column
The Tech Takeover: The Musk-Thiel Presidency Is About To Begin
The Tech Takeover: The Musk-Thiel Presidency Is About To Begin
The Tech Takeover: The Musk-Thiel Presidency Is About To Begin
by Brunello Rosa
25 November 2024
Last week we analyzed the initial appointments made by US President-elect Donald Trump, assessing their potential policy directions. Among these appointments, the nomination of Representative Matt Gaetz for Attorney General stood out as particularly contentious, even for a figure as polarizing as Trump. Gaetz, who was under investigation by the House Ethics Committee, has since withdrawn from consideration, citing insufficient support for Senate confirmation. Subsequently, Trump nominated former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi to the position. Bondi is expected to pursue similar objectives, such as addressing the legal challenges involving Trump personally, but without the controversies associated with Gaetz.
In related developments, Special Counsel Jack Smith announced his resignation, preempting his potential dismissal by the incoming administration. Similarly, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated that he will resign on January 20, 2025, coinciding with Trump’s inauguration. Trump's expressed intention to position the US as a global cryptocurrency hub and implement significant deregulation in the sector contrasts sharply with Gensler's regulatory approach over the past few years.
Regarding the Treasury Secretary appointment, the final contenders were Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick. Elon Musk reportedly favored Lutnick, viewing Bessent's previous association with Soros Fund Management as indicative of mainstream economic ties. Ultimately, Trump appointed Lutnick as Commerce Secretary, responsible for the new tariffs regime, and Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Unlike Trump’s other appointments, the choice of Bessent is a less controversial choice for this sensitive role.
The Tech Takeover: The Musk-Thiel Presidency Is About To Begin
The Tech Takeover: The Musk-Thiel Presidency Is About To Begin
Some media outlets interpreted this as Musk's first setback in the high-profile leadership dynamics within the incoming administration. Reports suggest that Musk, who has been appointed to lead the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency, is exerting significant influence over Trump’s decisions, with some describing him as a "co-president." Despite potential conflicts of interest due to his ownership of companies like SpaceX and Starlink, Musk is reportedly considering appointing personnel from his own enterprises to positions within NASA.
As the post-election landscape becomes clearer, it is evident that tech magnates such as Elon Musk and Peter Thiel are playing pivotal roles in shaping the administration. Musk was a major donor to Trump's campaign, contributing approximately $200 million, and facilitated Trump's return to the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), which Musk owns, from which the former president had been expelled for his incendiary messages. Trump himself has acknowledged Musk's indispensable role, stating, "I can't get him out of here."
Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal and founder of Palantir Technologies—a company financed and utilized by the US intelligence community—has supported the political rise of Vice President-elect J.D. Vance.
It is anticipated that Musk and Thiel will pursue objectives aligned with their corporate interests, potentially prioritizing deregulation to benefit tech companies. This trend reflects a historical pattern in US politics, where Big Business, whether it be steel, coal, banking, etc., has exerted significant influence. The emergence of antitrust laws, such as the Sherman Act of 1890, was a response to such dominance. As Mark Twain is often paraphrased: "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes."
LATEST RESEARCH
Resilience Amidst Sanctions: The Russian Economy’s Wartime Adaptation
by Nato Balavadze
27 November 2024
Lessons Learned: The Democrats’ Challenge After the 2024 Elections
by Kateryna Anisova
26 November 2024
Russia-Ukraine Conflict Escalates Further: Where From Now?
by Marco Lucchin
21 November 2024
France: Shaky Debt Sustainability Aggravates Political Instability
by Shahed Hassanaly
20 November 2024
A Fragile Future: Medium-Term Challenges to China’s Growth Ambitions
by Nato Balavadze
19 November 2024
Record Public Spending and Borrowing: Inside the UK’s New Budget Gamble
by Lāsma Kokina
12 November 2024
Looking Ahead
The Week Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
Week: 25 November - 2 December
The Week Ahead: QoQ GDP To Advance In US And France; EZ Headline Inflation Rate To Increase
In the US, in Q2, according to the second estimate, GDP growth rate is expected to advance by 2.8% y-o-y (p: 3.0%). In Q3, PCE and core PCE prices are likely to ease off to 1.5% q-o-q (p: 2.5%) and 2.2% q-o-q (p: 2.8%).
In the EZ, in November, headline inflation rate is seen increasing to 2.4% y-o-y (p: 2.0%). In November, Consumer Confidence is seen shrinking to -13.7 (p: -12.5). Among the largest EZ economies, in Q3, according to the final estimate, GDP growth rate is expected to rise by 0.4% q-o-q (p: 0.2%) in France.
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead
The Quarter Ahead: Bessent As Treasury Secretary; COP29 Agrees On Carbon Credits; Russia To Continue Testing New Missiles
President-elect Trump nominated investor Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary, ending speculation over the key role. Wall Street welcomed the pick, seeing Bessent, as a market-savvy advocate for tax reform and deregulation, potentially easing tariff concerns.
At COP29, countries agreed on global carbon credit market rules to fund projects combating climate change, finalizing a decade-long effort. The deal includes a UN trading system launching next year and a bilateral framework for direct country trades.
Russia to continue testing new missile in combat. Putin announced Russia's new Oreshnik hypersonic missile was successfully tested in Ukraine and more tests will follow. Ukraine, citing the threat, is working with allies to develop countermeasures.